Have you noticed anything new lately in the camp of the Lagos PDP? Have you observed that there seems to be a new bounce in their gait that suggests they could presently be enjoying some renewed confidence within the party, something they have been lacking for a long while now?
Yes,
there is a breath of fresh air in the camp of the Lagos PDP and, from what City
People found out, this new lease of life they appear to be enjoying might just
see them through the next governorship election in Lagos next year if they are
finally able to put their house in order.
For
quite a while now, since 1999 specifically, the PDP has played second fiddle to
APC in Lagos. No matter how hard it tried every election year, the PDP could
never quite cross the finish line ahead of the APC in Lagos governorship polls.
This has left many wondering when the opposition party will be able to break
the 23-year-old grip of the ruling APC. Every election year, the PDP has
appeared stronger and better prepared to take over the state from the APC, but
it has always fallen short of its target. The best chances opened to the PDP
to oust the ruling party in 2007 and 2015. In 2007, the major opposition party
got federal backing and massive funding from former President Olusegun Obasanjo
when it presented former envoy to Ghana, Senator Musiliu Obaniko as its
governorship candidate.
The
PDP would have capitalised on the internal crisis in the ruling Action Congress
(AC), now APC, when about 11 commissioners and the then Deputy Governor, Mr.
Femi Pedro, revolted against Tinubu on the ground that the National Leader
allegedly imposed his anointed candidate, Babatunde Fashola on others. But
Fashola, who is currently Minister of Works and Housing, eventually defeated
Obanikoro in the 2007 governorship race with 599,300 votes to 383, 956 votes.
Political
observers believed that the results would have been different if all
stakeholders in the PDP had united to support Obanikoro. And this has been the
bane of the PDP in the state, their inability to unite, speak with one voice
and rally around their candidate when it matters the most. They have had a
running battle with internal wrangling within the party and just never seemed
capable of finding a lasting solution to it. This is why they have continued to
squander chance after chance to take over the reins of power in Lagos.
They
lost yet another golden opportunity under erstwhile President Goodluck
Jonathan, who put the federal structure behind the Lagos PDP’s gubernatorial
candidate, Mr Jimi Agbaje.
Agbaje
was popular and well-accepted among indigenes of Lagos and it was expected that
his charisma with the PDP platform and the federal support would have been
massive enough to dismantle the APC stronghold.
Just
like the party failed to seize the opportunity of internal disagreement in APC
in 2007, PDP could also not capitalise on the resentment among members of the
ruling party over the choice of former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, who was
believed to have been imposed like Fashola by Tinubu. Again, Ambode went ahead
to dust Agbaje by 811, 994 thousand votes to 659, 788.
But
the recent defection of Dr. Abdulazeez Adediran aka Jandor, the convener of
Lagos4Lagos Movement, a splinter group in APC to the PDP, has given the party
renewed hope in its long time quest to take over the ruling of the state. Its
defection was witnessed and backed by 10 PDP governors, including the powerhouse of the PDP in the South-West, Governor Seyi Maknde of Oyo state, former
Senate President, Bukola Saraki, erstwhile Vice President, Atiku Abubakar,
incumbent National Chairman of the PDP, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, along with other
notable members of the party, has, however, engendered renewed optimism within
the rank of party faithful that the narrative may change in 2023. Jandor’s defection
to the PDP is a huge prospect for the 3 party faithful as he is said to have
come with over a million supporters from the APC.
Specifically,
political observers have said that the recent show of solidarity across the
country among PDP leaders and the fanfare created to receive Adediran in Lagos
portends some seriousness on the part of the party and a strong indication of
intent to win the governorship in Lagos come 2023. There are other factors
responsible for the renewed hope and confidence of the party faithful in Lagos.
The PDP is excited about the internal wrangling within the APC and is hopeful
that the PDP will be the biggest beneficiary when the APC convention holds this
February and it leaves many shattered and embittered party members in its wake.
It is expected that these members, in trying to serve their own interests and
fulfil personal ambitions, would leave the APC once it becomes obvious after
the convention that the party has nothing to offer them anymore. And from the
look of things, if the division within the ranks of the APC is anything to go
by, there will certainly be lots of heavyweight casualties by the time the APC
convention is over and the Lagos PDP would be waiting to throw its doors open
to as many as would be willing to join them. What this translates to is that
the PDP will probably be at its strongest ever form going into the governorship
elections next year.
Members
of the PDP in Lagos are also excited about the prospects the Igbo votes bring
to them. Many will recall that Oba Akiolu of Lagos, in 2015, threatened the
Igbos resident in Lagos to vote for APC’s Akinwunmi Ambode or have themselves
to blame should they go on to vote for the PDP. This threat to their lives and
business angered the Igbos greatly. If anything, rather than deter them, the
threat by the respected monarch only fueled their resolve to vote the ruling
party, APC, out of power in Lagos. And they very nearly did. They showed their
resentment for the APC by coming out en masse to vote for PDP’s governorship
candidate, Jimi Agbaje. The election result was close. Very close. And it’s
remained that way as the PDP continues to close the gap each election year. The
PDP will be motivated by this and will hope to build on their previous
impressive performances, more so now that Jandor and his over million followers
have joined the party.
One
other factor that will help the PDP take over Lagos is the divided attention of
the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. According to City
People findings, the PDP camp in Lagos expects that unlike in the past years
that Asiwaju was able to focus fully on Lagos governorship election and ensure
the APC maintains its grip on the richest state in the country, strategizing
and plotting the defeat of the PDP, things will be a little different this
time. In previous years, after he finished his tenure as governor of Lagos
State, Asiwaju never aspired for any political office. He was focused only on
securing Lagos and other southwest states. But this time, he will have his
hands full, especially if he is able to scale through the primaries and emerge
APC presidential candidate. According to Asiwaju, becoming the president of the
federal republic of Nigeria has been his lifelong ambition and he will
certainly give it everything he’s got to ensure his dream becomes reality. But
everyone knows Lagos is also Asiwaju’s power base, his strong tower where he is
the lord of his political empire, he will not let anything or anyone take his
power base away from him.
It
will be interesting to see how things will pan out in the next few months. But,
presently, the PDP are more confident than ever before that they may just have
finally got things right this time. They can feel it. They can smell blood.
They are almost certain the APC will be defeated at the polls come next year.
But will it be as easy and as straightforward as they think it will? The next
few months will determine how the pendulum will swing come next year.
-WALE
LAWAL
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