•New Perspectives Emerge
The
current political standing of the four major presidential candidates ahead of
the 2023 elections promises interesting days ahead. It will be interesting
because it is believed that for the very first time in the history of Nigeria’s
election, the so-called bloc votes may not work. From 1999 until date,
influential politicians have thrown in their hats in the presidential race
based on the bloc votes they depend on from their region, religion, ethnicity
and tribe.
With
a two-term former governor, Kano State, Engr Rabiu Kwankwaso flying the ticket
of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and former Anambra State Governor,
Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), it is believed that the 2023 presidential
contest would not just be the fiercest, it would be the most unpredictable and
intriguing election in the democratic history of Nigeria. These two candidates
have taken the battle beyond the usual PDP versus APC affair and their
structures are also growing as wildfire across the country.
For
12 years, General Mohammadu Buhari contested and lost the presidency, but
continued to secure no fewer than 6 million votes from his bloc of loyalists in
Katsina, Kano and other key northern states. This made it easier for the APC to
settle for Buhari as their candidate for the 2015 elections. Buhari beat
Goodluck Jonathan by 2.5 million votes, which may have been impossible without
his long-preserved bloc votes of 6 million.
Let’s
take a quick look at Kwankwaso’s support base; convener of the most organized
socio-political movement with a followership of over 4 million members across
Nigeria, a two-term governor of the populous Kano State, former Minister of
Defence and a senator, he will be counting on his cult-like followership in
Kano, parts of Jigawa and Katsina, which will all be deciding factors in who
wins the 2023 presidential election.
Despite
the popularity of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed
Tinubu, it will be suicidal to undermine the influence of RMK in these regions.
He will be polling most of the Kano votes, especially now that he has settled
his scores with his political equal in Kano State, Senator Ibrahim Shekarau,
who is also a former governor of Kano. They are both key players in the New
Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The recent defections of key politicians, mainly
from the ruling APC, to Kwankwaso’s NNPP, will also impact the chances of
both Atiku and Tinubu in the North-Western states. If all these indices are
considered, it can only mean that the fate of the PDP and APC is not certain in
Kano due to the nerve- wrecking incursions the NNPP has made in the political
landscape of the state.
While
one of the factions was loyal to the state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje who is
the key mobilizer in the state for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the other was led
by a former governor of the state, now a senator representing Kano Central,
Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who is now
working for Kwankwaso
The
lawmakers that defected to the NNPP are Abdullahi Iliyasu Yaryasa, a member,
representing the Tudun Wada constituency; Muhd Bello Butu Butu, a member representing
Tofa/Rimin Gado constituency and Kabiru Yusuf Ismail, a member representing
Madobi Constituency. A week earlier, 10 lawmakers of the PDP in the state House
of Assembly also defected to the NNPP.
The
lawmakers are Isyaku Ali Danja of Gezawa constituency; Umar Musa Gama of
Nassarawa constituency; Aminu Sa’adu Ungogo of Ungogo Constituency; Lawan
Hussain Chediyar ‘Yan Gurasa of Dala constituency and Tukur Muhammad of Fagge
Constituency. So with the RMK factor, no party can lay claim to any bloc votes
from anywhere.
Pundits
are also of the opinion that Peter Obi will be part of those that will share
the votes of the north despite the impression that he’s only the candidate of
the south. The Anambra former Governor has joined forces with his northern
corporate partners who operate behind the scene to canvass for votes for him.
This explains the seeming emergence of several pro-Peter Obi groups in the
north. There are also reports that some unpopular parties in the north have
completed plans to support Peter Obi to secure their interest in the region.
Recall
that the elder statesman who was placed as interim running mate to Peter Obi,
Dr Doyin Okupe stepped down on Friday for Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, the founder
of Baze University, Abuja. The 46-year-old was a former lawmaker who
represented Kaduna North Senatorial district.
The
economist-cum- politician served as Senator for Kaduna North from 2011 to 2012
and a member of the House of Representatives from 2003 to 2007. This means he
would scoop a considerable number of votes for the Labour Party. He is a Muslim
and therefore fits into the power balance of North-South and Christian. Muslim
arrangement.
While
Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu may have better name recognition, national
spread, and the presence of political party structures across the federation,
other candidates like Peter Obi and Kwakwaso, resonate resoundingly among young
and middle-class voters, and those who are looking for an opportunity for a
shift from the status quo and established system.
There
is a strong belief that people from the North are always united by religion
and ethnicity, and their voting pattern will be along those lines. The
monolithic North, defined by Islam and Hausa/Fulani ethnicity, may not see
Tinubu as a pure Muslim, so they would be voting for either Atiku or Kwankwaso
A
key member of the APC told City People assuringly that Tinubu would win Kano
and Borno because of his formidable alliances with the Kano State governor, Dr
Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and a former Borno governor, Alhaji Kashim Shettima. He
further added that the choice of Tinubu’s running mate when he is finally
unveiled will also give him more votes in the North.
But
in terms of structure and resources, Asiwaju and Atiku have them; they are
heavily loaded and they are ready to spend. One cannot say the same about Peter
Obi and Kwankwaso. Just as stated earlier, this is a period that will put
prophets and analysts on their toes.
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