How The South West Played Into The Hands Of The North

There is uneasy calm in the Southern region over the 2023 election and plot to whittle down the numerical strength of the Southern region of the All Progressive Party, following the unfolding political game plan of the northern cabal.

Though the 2023 election is barely a year to go, the state APC is said to be worried by recent developments which showed some Northern powerbrokers are not willing to relinquish power to any southern leader who cannot be controlled.

The cabals are not only showing interest but also literally dropping the weapon in their midst and stepping back to watch them attack one another. They also reportedly target some key players from the south to weaken the structure ahead 2023 elections. They have succeeded in planting one-time loyalists and colleagues who share common interests to challenge one another.

In the past couple of months now, the swelling rank of “disgruntled members” of the party in the southern region has become a major concern as most of the members who have enjoyed the benevolence of the party leader to consolidate themselves in power have found political convenience in the arms of the northern power brokers, thereby causing unease in the dynasty, at a time the opposition has vowed to checkmate the dominance of the APC leader in the state ahead of the 2023 elections.

As of today the schisms in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), have led to the formation of at least four different camps: Vice President Osinbajo has his camp, Rotimi Amaechi, Minister of Transport on one side; and Tinubu, the national leader of the APC and the speaker of the house of representative on another camp. Rauf Aregbesola is leading another movement. there is a camp that is also controlled by the APC committee chairman, Governor Mai Mallam Buni. the APC governors forum has its own interest and the southeast are standing alone.

The Northern cabal has succeeded in poaching southern political interests against one another. They have encouraged almost all the southern leaders to come out and contest. Some members of the cabal had hinted former President Goodluck Jonathan that he’s the chosen one. another camp had hinted that Mr President prefers Petroleum Minister for State Timipre Sylva. There are also report that Rotimi Amaechi is the anointed candidate from Aso Rock. Forger Imo State governor and serving lawmaker, Rochas Okorocha has also been going round to state his intention. Ben Ayade is on the list. And so is Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, and Dave Umahi.

As of now, things have literally fallen apart in the south and the centre can no longer hold.

There are also permutations that if there is a contest between the South-East and the South-West as well as the South-South, the North may cash in on it and retain power in 2023, thereby keeping the North in power.

The feelings in the South-East will be that rather than allow the South-West to return to power after Obasanjo’s presidency of 8 years and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo’s vice presidency of eight years, the North should take it. The South-West will also reason that the North should have the presidency rather than the South-East reaping from what they deem as the sweat of the South-West. The South-South may have the same reasoning too. Consequently, a northern candidate like Atiku or Kwankwaso may reap from such an apple of discord in the South.

The permutation ahead of 2023 is that political power is there on a platter of gold for the South-West if only the gladiators from the region can speak with one voice and work towards one goal. But the snag there is still how to overcome the new rivalry among the gladiators. For obvious reasons, it would be easy for the South-West to mobilize themselves and field one single candidate for the cause but otherwise with the disposition of the new enmity built against Asiwaju by his one-time beneficiaries. Critical observers familiar with the cultural and historical dimensions of the nation’s politics agree that the cat and mouse game among the political giants in the southwest may likely continue in the politics of 2023.

This is why it is believed that the northern cabals are devising political calculations to cut the wings of every possible threat from the south and further strengthen the unity of the north.

But for obvious reasons bothering of varying interest and quest for power, the Yoruba leaders couldn’t see the trap. The politicians who are just getting the invites to the centre and dining with the federal power have been misguided by the diffusing network of friendship or relationships that fizzle off once they are no longer needed.

The narrative from the north holds that the region is yet to exhaust the required term for the presidency slot. According to the analysis of the north, Olusegun Obasanjo had a successful 8 years at the instance of the first republic. The successive government which was led by President Umar Yar’Adua only spent two years before Goodluck Jonathan came in and spent about 6 years. This, according to the north has accumulated to become 14 years from the South.

The North, therefore, believed that Buhari had only used 8 years and they have to fill the deficit of 6 more years in office to even the score.

As of now, even the emergence of a northerner for just one term will not be enough. This is the perception of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and with the narrative, the north will vote for a candidate from the region.

It is however not clear if the northern APC has a plan to eventually field a candidate, but the fact that the Chairman has been zoned to the north-central shows that a candidate from the northeast or northwest may be possible.

As far as politics is concerned, nothing is cast in stone.

- Joseph Seun Emmanuel